Operation Epic Fury Day 6 — Mar 5, 2026 Brief

05 March 2026 · UPDATE #3 · Distribution: Public

Operation Epic Fury: Day 6 Update

Operation Epic Fury has entered its sixth day with no indication of de-escalation. Both the United States and Israel have signaled that strikes will intensify.

Domestic Threat Assessment: ELEVATED. Active military operations entering Day 6 with no de-escalation. Over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones launched by Iran. Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Conflict spread to Lebanon, Azerbaijan, and across the Persian Gulf. DHS under partial shutdown with no formal NTAS alert issued.

Executive Summary

Operation Epic Fury has entered its sixth day with no indication of de-escalation. Both the United States and Israel have signaled that strikes will intensify. Iran's retaliatory capacity has proven more resilient than initial assessments suggested, with over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones launched since February 28. The conflict has spread to Lebanon, Azerbaijan, and across the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial traffic. The war is costing the U.S. an estimated $1 billion per day.

Both chambers of Congress have rejected war powers resolutions to restrain the President, giving the administration an unrestricted operational mandate. Domestically, DHS remains under a partial shutdown with no formal National Terrorism Advisory System alert issued despite active conflict.

Operational Update

Israel's military chief announced the transition to the "next phase" of operations after executing 2,500 strikes using over 6,000 weapons. U.S. forces continue to expand inland, striking progressively deeper into Iranian territory. Iran's naval capacity has been assessed as effectively neutralized, including the torpedo sinking of the IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean off Sri Lanka, the first U.S. submarine kill since World War II.

Israel struck the Assembly of Experts during a session to elect the next Supreme Leader, directly disrupting leadership succession. Israel's Defense Minister disclosed that the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei was set as an objective in November 2025. President Trump stated publicly that the U.S. should be involved in selecting Iran's next leader.

Iranian Retaliation

Iran's retaliatory strikes are expanding, not contracting. On March 5 alone, the UAE intercepted 6 ballistic missiles and 131 drones. Since the war began, Iran has launched 941 drones, 189 ballistic missiles, and 8 cruise missiles at the UAE alone. Qatar was targeted by 14 ballistic missiles and 4 drones. Bahrain has intercepted 75 missiles and 123 drones. Strikes have also hit Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Azerbaijan.

The IRGC fired 230 drones at U.S. troop facilities including Erbil, Ali Al Salem airbase, and Camp Arifjan. Iraqi forces intercepted a drone targeting a U.S. base near Baghdad International Airport. Iran's Islamic Resistance proxy in Iraq has claimed responsibility for 123 attacks since the start of the war.

Iran's Foreign Minister stated Iran will not negotiate and has had no communication with U.S. envoys since before the strikes began. Iranian leadership is framing this as an endurance contest, not a kinetic one.

Regional Escalation

Hezbollah has conducted 91 attack incidents against Israeli territory and IDF forces since entering the conflict on March 2. Lebanon's government has banned Hezbollah military activities and reinstated visa requirements for Iranian nationals. Over 300,000 people are estimated displaced in Lebanon.

Kurdish-Iranian armed groups have launched a ground offensive in northwest Iran. U.S. officials have reportedly asked Iraqi Kurdish forces to assist in cross-border military operations. Drones struck an airport terminal in Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan, with Azerbaijan calling it "an act of terrorism." Iran denied responsibility.

France has authorized U.S. forces to use French bases. The UK is deploying additional jets to Qatar and naval assets to protect shipping lanes. Australia is deploying military units to the region. Ukraine has offered drone defense expertise to Gulf nations. China is dispatching envoy Zhai Jun to the region.

Casualties and Humanitarian Impact

Iranian state media reports over 1,000 killed and 6,000 wounded. The WHO has identified 13 Iranian health infrastructure sites hit by U.S. and Israeli strikes. Iran's Foreign Ministry has accused the coalition of striking 33 civilian sites including hospitals, schools, the Tehran Grand Bazaar, and Golestan Palace. Six U.S. service members have been killed. Eleven deaths reported in Israel. Fifty deaths reported in Lebanon. The UN International Maritime Organization reports 20,000 seafarers and 15,000 cruise passengers stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Economic Impact

U.S. crude oil surged to $78.80/barrel. Brent crude climbed to $84.62. The VIX (market fear index) jumped 10%. The dollar index rose 1.7% as investors sought safe havens. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped. China ordered an immediate halt to fuel exports due to import instability. Multiple airports across the Gulf remain closed or operating limited flights. The war is estimated to cost the United States $1 billion per day.

Domestic Threat Picture

DHS has warned that Iran and its proxies "will almost certainly escalate retaliatory actions or calls to action" within the United States. The primary assessed threats are lone-actor violence and cyber operations. Large-scale physical attack is assessed as unlikely but the threat of targeted attacks is described as "persistent."

DHS has not issued a formal NTAS alert. The NTAS website has not been updated since February 17 due to the funding lapse. CISA is operating at approximately 38% staffing. The DHS partial shutdown is now in its third week with no resolution in sight. Both chambers of Congress have failed to pass funding legislation.

The Austin, Texas bar shooting on March 1, in which the suspect wore clothing displaying pro-Iranian messaging, remains the only domestic incident linked to the conflict. The absence of follow-on attacks may indicate limited operational capability within the U.S., but the lag between a catalyzing event and domestic action can extend weeks or months. Vigilance must be sustained.

What to Watch

The next 48-72 hours are critical. Israel has announced the "next phase" of operations, which likely means heavier strikes on hardened and buried targets. Iran has telegraphed a major retaliatory strike, potentially using one-ton warheads through degraded air defense corridors. The Kurdish ground offensive in northwest Iran could fragment internal cohesion faster than air strikes alone. China's diplomatic entry introduces a new variable. Congressional inaction on both war powers and DHS funding creates a domestic security gap that grows wider with each passing day.

Security Recommendations

For Organizations

Review and test incident response plans. Ensure cybersecurity posture accounts for Iranian-linked threat actors targeting critical infrastructure, water utilities, and government networks. Coordinate with local law enforcement on enhanced vigilance for facilities perceived as Jewish, pro-Israel, or U.S. government-affiliated. Verify physical security at all facilities. Conduct emergency communication drills.

For Individuals

Maintain situational awareness in public spaces, particularly high-traffic venues, places of worship, and government buildings. Ensure emergency supplies and communication plans are in place at home. Monitor fuel and energy price disruptions that may impact daily logistics. Review personal cybersecurity hygiene, especially for accounts connected to government, military, or defense-sector employment.

This threat brief is provided for informational purposes and is based on publicly available, open-source intelligence. It does not contain classified information. Distribution is authorized for public release.

Continuing coverage: U.S.-Iran conflict

About the Author

Kawika Rogers is Managing Partner at Eight Point Solutions LLC, a veteran-led defense consulting and training firm based in Maryland. He served as an Infantry Team Leader in the United States Marine Corps, then directed the Field Training Officer program and served as an Armorer for Triple Canopy at Camp Arifjan and Camp Buehring in support of Operation Inherent Resolve. He has also served in an advisory and operational capacity in Eastern Europe. Rogers holds over 15 instructor certifications in firearms, defensive tactics, and emergency medicine, and studied International Relations and Global Security at American Military University.

Eight Point Solutions LLC 7404 Executive Place, 5th Floor, Suite L-17, Lanham, MD 20706 // rogers@eightpointsolutions.com // eightpointsolutions.com SDVOSB // eightpointsolutions.app // eightpointsolutions-tech.com // SAM UEI: EY34ARER2TD9

EPS Threat Brief Update #3 // March 5, 2026 // Operation Epic Fury Day 6